Hamilton School · University of Florida · Fall 2026

ISS 4931

Big Problems in PPEL — Challenges of the Twentieth Century

MWF 9:35–10:25 Room TBD Prof. Mark Koyama 36 meetings Aug 21 – Dec 2

The twentieth century saw the greatest transformation in human material welfare in history — and two world wars, genocides, totalitarian regimes, famines, and persistent poverty across much of the globe. Why did some societies achieve sustained prosperity while others stagnated or collapsed into violence?

This course uses the economic history of the twentieth century to pursue that question. We trace how each era's dominant economic framework — from the classical liberalism of the first age of globalization, through socialism and Keynesianism, to the “neoliberal” order of the late twentieth century — arose as a response to the perceived failures of its predecessor.

How readings work. Items marked Open are freely available and link straight to the source. Items marked Canvas are posted in the course Canvas site — you must be logged in and enrolled. Nothing copyrighted is hosted on this page.

marks primary sources to be read before the session they sit under. Other readings may be done at your own pace across the topic block.

Laptops and devices. Laptops, tablets, and phones stay closed and put away during class. Slides are posted to Canvas as PDFs before each meeting, so there is nothing to transcribe in real time — bring them printed if you like, and take notes by hand. Device accommodations arranged through the Disability Resource Center are honoured.

The readings listed below are subject to change. Any changes will be announced in class and the updated syllabus posted on Canvas.

I

The Rise and Crisis of the Global Economy

Sessions 1–19 · Aug 21 – Oct 12

Session 1 · Introduction

01Fri Aug 21 The great transformation of the twentieth century — and the questions we will pursue

Sessions 2–4 · Origins of Capitalism and Modern Economic Growth

Why did sustained economic growth begin where and when it did? What were its preconditions?

  • Koyama & Rubin, How the World Became Rich, ch. 1–3 Book
02Mon Aug 24What needs explaining? Malthus and the Great Divergence
03Wed Aug 26Candidate explanations: geography, institutions, culture, demography
04Fri Aug 28The Industrial Revolution and why it happened in Britain

Sessions 5–7 · The First Age of Globalization

What drove the integration of the world economy before 1914? Who benefited and who lost?

  • Koyama & Rubin, How the World Became Rich, ch. 9 Book
  • DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia, ch. 1–3 Book
  • Rhode, “North America: The Rise of US Technological and Economic Leadership” Canvas
  • Jacks, “What Drove 19th Century Commodity Market Integration?” EEH 43(3), 2006 Open ↗
  • O'Rourke & Williamson, “Were Heckscher and Ohlin Right?” NBER Historical WP 37 Open ↗
05Mon Aug 31Transport, trade, and commodity market integration
06Wed Sep 02Migration, capital flows, and the classical gold standard
07Fri Sep 04Empire, divergence, and the rise of the United States
Mon Sep 07Labor Day — no class

Sessions 8–10 · World War I

How did the war destroy the pre-1914 economic order? What were its long-run consequences?

  • Broadberry, “World War I: Why the Allies Won,” in The Economics of the Great War Open ↗
  • Eloranta & Harrison, “War and Disintegration, 1914–1950” Canvas
  • DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia, ch. 5 Book

Optional listening

The Rest Is History, “The Road to the Great War,” episodes 469–474 Series ↗
Six episodes tracking the July Crisis almost day by day. Parts 2–5 apportion the blame across four different capitals — Berlin, Vienna, London, and St Petersburg — which is roughly the structure of Session 8.

08Wed Sep 09Origins of the war and the economics of mobilization
09Fri Sep 11Why the Allies won: resources, finance, and blockade
10Mon Sep 14Versailles, reparations, and the disintegration of the world economy

Sessions 11–12 · Socialism and Communism

What was the intellectual appeal of socialism? How did the Bolsheviks seize power, and what kind of economy did they build?

  • Lenin, What Is to Be Done? (1902), ch. 2 Open ↗ and ch. 4 §E Open ↗ — for Session 11
  • Lenin, State and Revolution (1917), ch. 5 §2 Open ↗ — for Session 12
  • Lenin, The April Theses (1917) Open ↗ — for Session 12
  • Lenin, The Hanging Order Telegram (1918) Open ↗ — for Session 12
  • DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia, ch. 8 Book
11Wed Sep 16The intellectual appeal of socialism and the calculation debate
Fri Sep 18No class
12Mon Sep 21Lenin, 1917, and the Bolshevik seizure of power: War Communism and the NEP

Sessions 13–14 · Fascism

What was the economic programme of fascism? How did fascist regimes differ from communist ones?

  • Mussolini, The Doctrine of Fascism (1932) Open ↗ — for Session 13
  • The Fascist Manifesto (1919) Open ↗ — for Session 13
  • DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia, ch. 9 Book
13Wed Sep 23Origins and doctrine: fascism as an answer to liberalism and Marxism
14Fri Sep 25Fascism in practice

Sessions 15–17 · The Great Depression

What caused the Great Depression and why was it so severe? How did governments respond?

  • Romer, “The Nation in Depression,” JEP 7(2), 1993 Open ↗
  • Temin, “Transmission of the Great Depression,” JEP 7(2), 1993 Open ↗
  • Friedman & Schwartz, “The Great Contraction, 1929–33,” ch. 7 of A Monetary History of the United States Open ↗
  • Bernanke, “The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach,” JMCB 27(1), 1995 Open ↗
  • Cole & Ohanian, “New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression,” JPE 2004 Canvas
  • Ohanian, “What — or Who — Started the Great Depression?” NBER WP 15258 Open ↗
  • Selgin, “Contextualizing the Great Depression” (Macro Musings podcast) Open ↗
15Mon Sep 28The 1920s and the onset of the downturn
16Wed Sep 30The gold standard, banking panics, and monetary transmission
17Fri Oct 02The New Deal, recovery, and the debate over policy

Sessions 18–19 · Review and Midterm I

18Mon Oct 05Review session — synthesis of Sessions 1–17. Note: the class does not meet again until the midterm; use the intervening week to prepare.
Wed Oct 07No class
Fri Oct 09Homecoming — no class
19Mon Oct 12Midterm I — covers Sessions 1–18
II

War, Recovery, and the Keynesian Consensus

Sessions 20–34 · Oct 14 – Nov 20

Sessions 20–22 · Soviet Communism

Did Soviet central planning “work”? What were its achievements and its failures?

  • Gregory & Harrison, “Allocation under Dictatorship: Research in Stalin's Archives,” JEL 2005 Canvas
  • Naumenko, “The Political Economy of Famine: The Ukrainian Famine of 1933,” JEH 2021 Canvas
  • Kornai, “The Soft Budget Constraint,” Kyklos 39(1), 1986 Canvas
20Wed Oct 14Collectivization and the Ukrainian famine
21Fri Oct 16Planning in practice: evidence from Stalin's archives
22Mon Oct 19Growth, stagnation, and decline

Sessions 23 & 25 · The Nazi Economy

How did Nazi economic policy relate to rearmament and war? Was the wartime economy efficient?

  • Tooze, The Wages of Destruction, ch. 1 and 5 Canvas
  • Temin, “Soviet and Nazi Economic Planning in the 1930s,” EcHR 44(4), 1991 Open ↗
  • Buchheim & Scherner, “The Role of Private Property in the Nazi Economy,” JEH 66(2), 2006 Open ↗
23Wed Oct 21Recovery, autarky, and the turn to rearmament
24Fri Oct 23Midterm II — covers Sessions 20–23
Mon Oct 26No class
25Wed Oct 28Tooze on the German war economy: constraints, plunder, and forced labour

Sessions 26–28 · World War II and the Post-War Economic Order

How did the war reshape the global economy? What institutions underpinned the postwar boom?

  • Higgs, “Wartime Prosperity? A Reassessment of the U.S. Economy in the 1940s,” JEH 1992 Canvas
  • Crafts & Toniolo, “Aggregate Growth, 1950–2005” Canvas
26Fri Oct 30Mobilization and the economics of Allied victory
27Mon Nov 02The war itself
28Wed Nov 04The postwar economy and the Golden Age
29Fri Nov 06Midterm III — covers Sessions 25–28

Sessions 30–31 · The Problem of the “Third World”

Why did the developing world fail to converge? What was the role of development economics and foreign aid?

  • Koyama & Rubin, How the World Became Rich, ch. 10 Book
  • DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia, ch. 12 Book
  • Lewis, “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour,” 1954 Canvas
  • Rosenstein-Rodan, “Problems of Industrialisation of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe,” EJ 1943 Canvas
  • Easterly, “The Ghost of Financing Gap,” World Bank WP 1807 Open ↗
  • Easterly & Levine, “Africa's Growth Tragedy,” QJE 1997 Canvas
30Mon Nov 09Development economics, planning, and import substitution
Wed Nov 11Veterans Day — no class
31Fri Nov 13Aid, institutions, and the East Asian exception

Sessions 32–34 · Inflation and the Collapse of the Keynesian Consensus

What caused the Great Inflation? How did it undermine the postwar policy framework?

  • Friedman, “The Role of Monetary Policy,” AER 58(1), 1968 Canvas — for Session 33
  • DeLong, “America's Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s,” 1997 Canvas
  • DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia, ch. 15 Book
32Mon Nov 16The Keynesian consensus and the Phillips curve
33Wed Nov 18Friedman, expectations, and the Great Inflation of the 1970s
34Fri Nov 20Volcker, disinflation, and the end of the consensus
Nov 23–27Thanksgiving Break — no class
III

Neoliberalism, Globalization, and Their Discontents

Sessions 35–36 · Nov 30 – Dec 2

What policies did Reagan and Thatcher actually pursue? Were welfare states dismantled or merely reformed? Who won and who lost from the second age of globalization?

  • Easterly, “In Search of Reforms for Growth,” NBER WP 26318 Open ↗
  • Grier & Grier, “The Washington Consensus Works,” JCE 2021 Canvas
  • Rodrik, “Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion?” JEL 2006 Canvas
  • Autor, Dorn & Hanson, “The China Syndrome,” AER 2013 Canvas
  • Saez & Zucman, “The Rise of Income and Wealth Inequality in America,” JEP 2020 Open ↗
  • Auten & Splinter, “Income Inequality in the United States,” JPE 2024 Canvas
  • Milanovic, “Global Income Inequality by the Numbers,” World Bank WP 6259 Open ↗
35Mon Nov 30The “neoliberal” order, the second age of globalization, and the backlash
36Wed Dec 02Review and student presentations
Dec 5–11Final Examination — comprehensive · date set by the Registrar

The Screening Room

Optional film and television

None of this is required unless announced in class. It is here because some arguments land better on screen than on the page — and because several of these are simply worth your time.

They Shall Not Grow Old

2018 · dir. Peter Jackson · 99 min

Imperial War Museum footage restored, speed-corrected and colourised, over veteran interview audio.

Session 9

The Remains of the Day

1993 · dir. James Ivory · 134 min

Deference, dignity, and what is owed to an employer whose politics are monstrous. Lord Darlington as a sympathetic — and catastrophic — English Nazi sympathiser.

Sessions 13–14 · 25–27

Mr. Jones

2019 · dir. Agnieszka Holland · 141 min

Gareth Jones breaks the story of the Ukrainian famine; Walter Duranty of the New York Times buries it.

Sessions 20–22

The Death of Stalin

2017 · dir. Armando Iannucci · 107 min

Succession politics as farce, in the days after the stroke. Banned in Russia. Note the comic register sits against a real body count.

Sessions 20–22

Anthropoid

2016 · dir. Sean Ellis · 120 min

The 1942 assassination of Reinhard Heydrich in Prague, and the annihilation of Lidice in reprisal. Extremely violent in its final act.

Sessions 23–24

Munich: The Edge of War

2021 · dir. Christian Schwochow · 130 min

Munich 1938, from the Robert Harris novel. A sympathetic reading of Chamberlain: that he bought time knowingly rather than being duped.

Sessions 25–27

The Gathering Storm

2002 · dir. Richard Loncraine · 96 min

Churchill in the wilderness years. The counter-case to Munich: appeasement as a failure of nerve rather than prudent delay. Watch the two as a pair.

Sessions 25–27

The Battle of Algiers

1966 · dir. Gillo Pontecorvo · 121 min

The canonical decolonization film, even-handed to the point that it has been screened by insurgents and counterinsurgency planners alike.

Sessions 28–30

Lumumba

2000 · dir. Raoul Peck · 115 min

Congolese independence and the murder of Patrice Lumumba in 1961 — the origin story for Mobutu, and for the Cold War in Africa.

Sessions 28–30

American Factory

2019 · Bognar & Reichert · 110 min

A Chinese glass company reopens a shuttered GM plant in Ohio. The China Shock inside one building.

Sessions 34–36

Commanding Heights

PBS · episode 1, “The Battle of Ideas”

Runs the whole arc of this course in one narrative: liberal order → war → planning → Depression → Keynesian consensus → stagflation → Hayek's revenge. Shown in segments across the semester.

Throughout

Course materials. Lecture slides, scanned chapters, and the readings marked Canvas above are posted on the course Canvas site. You will need to be logged in and enrolled. This page hosts no copyrighted material; where a reading is freely available, it links to the publisher or the author.

Contact. Prof. Mark Koyama · office hours by request.

ISS 4931 · Hamilton School · University of Florida · Fall 2026 · schedule subject to revision